Expected goals pre and post Beale

mathers1 said:
Great, but what’s the expected goals conceded?

I’m sure that won’t make for as nice viewing.
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Maybe not, but our biggest issue under Gio was not playing on the front foot enough so I'm glad this issue is being solved.

Beale was also assistant during our best defensive record in the league so I'm confident after a pre season he'll have us looking good at both ends of the pitch.
 
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Fred the Tav fan said:
Maybe not, but our biggest issue under Gio was not playing on the front foot enough so I'm glad this issue is being solved.

Beale was also assistant during our best our defensive record in the league so I'm confident after a pre season he'll have us looking good at both ends of the pitch.
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New GK, new DM required for that to take place to be honest.

Raskin looks better box to box, Lundstram protecting the back 4 is rotten. The least said about McGregor the better, got done by Van Veen & nearly conceded. He was awful for the second goal (alongside Tav, Goldson & Davies)
 
Fred the Tav fan said:
Maybe not, but our biggest issue under Gio was not playing on the front foot enough so I'm glad this issue is being solved.

Beale was also assistant during our best our defensive record in the league so I'm confident after a pre season he'll have us looking good at both ends of the pitch.
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Beale was more recently assistant when we kept going 1-0 every game too.

Gio struggled to hold on to a lead. Beale struggles to play for more than a half.

The front foot stuff is excellent, but there are flaws too and the flaws we have were also highlighted in his last spell.
 
mathers1 said:
Great, but what’s the expected goals conceded?

I’m sure that won’t make for as nice viewing.
Click to expand...
Defending is much more difficult to fix. It'll take a long time to fix the structure and have the whole team defend well together. Set piece defending was absolutely horrendous (and still is). That'll take a complete rethink to fix.

Our attacking shape was a quick fix, and let the individuals express themselves. That was always going to result in more goals.
 
I don't know how to split it between Gio and Beale but we are at 18.4 XG conceded for the season.

We have conceded 27 goals, so that tells you that we are conceding more than we should be.

Celtic are also on 18.4 XG for the season btw.

Weirdly Hearts have conceded the highest XG in the league.
 
Growler said:
Beale was more recently assistant when we kept going 1-0 every game too.

Gio struggled to hold on to a lead. Beale struggles to play for more than a half.

The front foot stuff is excellent, but there are flaws too and the flaws we have were also highlighted in his last spell.
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Tbf Beale has won 9 away games on the bounce. Gio had a worse away record than Motherwell not long before he got sacked.
 
TheHammerJorgAlbertz11 said:
I don't know how to split it between Gio and Beale but we are at 18.4 XG conceded for the season.

We have conceded 27 goals, so that tells you that we are conceding more than we should be.

Celtic are also on 18.4 XG for the season btw.

Weirdly Hearts have conceded the highest XG in the league.
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The difference being the goalkeepers.
 
Macky said:
Tbf Beale has won 9 away games on the bounce. Gio had a worse away record than Motherwell not long before he got sacked.
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Strongly agree, but a different debate. There is still clearly room for improvement at the back when we keep conceding the same goal over and over - and did so before Gerrard/Beale left before too.

Remember Gio came in and started keeping one full back back and it stopped us conceding as many? It doesn’t need to be a straight comparison of overall performance - there are snippets of Gio’s tenure we can take that would compliment us now (it doesn’t have to be an all or nothing comparison).
 
Growler said:
Strongly agree, but a different debate. There is still clearly room for improvement at the back when we keep conceding the same goal over and over - and did so before Gerrard/Beale left before too.

Remember Gio came in and started keeping one full back back and it stopped us conceding as many? It doesn’t need to be a straight comparison of overall performance - there are snippets of Gio’s tenure we can take that would compliment us now (it doesn’t have to be an all or nothing comparison).
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Domestically I’m more concerned about scoring goals than being tight at the back. Gios major problem was he thought the opposite.
 
Fred the Tav fan said:
Maybe not, but our biggest issue under Gio was not playing on the front foot enough so I'm glad this issue is being solved.

Beale was also assistant during our best defensive record in the league so I'm confident after a pre season he'll have us looking good at both ends of the pitch.
Click to expand...
You're right, that will come.
 
Growler said:
Strongly agree, but a different debate. There is still clearly room for improvement at the back when we keep conceding the same goal over and over - and did so before Gerrard/Beale left before too.

Remember Gio came in and started keeping one full back back and it stopped us conceding as many? It doesn’t need to be a straight comparison of overall performance - there are snippets of Gio’s tenure we can take that would compliment us now (it doesn’t have to be an all or nothing comparison).
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Gio was an absolute disaster for us in the league.

His away record was bottom six standard.
 
Mview83 said:
Gio was an absolute disaster for us in the league.

His away record was bottom six standard.
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What was his away record in the league, out of interest? It got to the stage where I just expected us to drop points away from home regardless if it was Parkhead or Paisley.
 
A stat that is always a good indicator of how a league season will play out. Pretty optimistic going into next season given the league form under Beale.
 
TN8 said:
What was his away record in the league, out of interest? It got to the stage where I just expected us to drop points away from home regardless if it was Parkhead or Paisley.
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2-2 with Hibs
4-0 off the scum
2-1 off St Johnstone
1-1 with St Mirren

Won 2-1 against Livi
Won 4-0 against Hearts
Won 2-1 against Motherwell

So 3 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses.
11/21 points, whilst Beale has 24/24
 
mathers1 said:
Great, but what’s the expected goals conceded?

I’m sure that won’t make for as nice viewing.
Click to expand...
I think I remember reading on here a month ago that our expected conceded goals was slightly higher under Beale, could have changed by now but we are definitely still letting in a fair few goals
 
ShieldhallBear said:
2-2 with Hibs
4-0 off the scum
2-1 off St Johnstone
1-1 with St Mirren

Won 2-1 against Livi
Won 4-0 against Hearts
Won 2-1 against Motherwell

So 3 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses.
11/21 points, whilst Beale has 24/24
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Last seasons wasn’t pretty either (after the break)
 
Our finishing is not great.
The over the bar shots are going to send me to an early grave :))

It’s getting better though, hopefully it continues.
 
mathers1 said:
Great, but what’s the expected goals conceded?

I’m sure that won’t make for as nice viewing.
Click to expand...
Worth bearing in mind that the wonderful Celtic have only conceded 6 fewer goals than us in the league (27 to 21).

That could well be the difference between being 9 points behind and being 3 points behind, but it’s not a huge difference when you consider the opinions on our defence.
 
TN8 said:
I see your point but remember the start of last season, when we kept laughing at that mob's expected goals stats and the expected goals table? We weren't laughing for long. There's something in it.
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I remember it well, we were top of the league but the XG table was showing that they had an expected points way above ours.
 
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Midfield General said:
As long as we score one more goal than we lose is all that matters.
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Such a basic thing to say though. Do you not expect the staff to be looking at why we concede and why we don't score the amount of goals we should? It's not under 10's thats why games aren't finishing 11-10.
 
TN8 said:
I see your point but remember the start of last season, when we kept laughing at that mob's expected goals stats and the expected goals table? We weren't laughing for long. There's something in it.
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Of course there is or literally every club top club in the world wouldn't be using it.
 
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That’s very promising, it’d be interesting to see how that breaks down against teams that sit deep and teams that attack - not sure if that’s available.

I still think we need a change of system to help us against low blocks but chance creation has been our weakness for a long time so promising stats.
 
This XG stuff does my nut in, zero interest in “expected”, it’s actual goals that count and all that matters

Under Walter our XG figure would have been non existent in many games that we won, and expected goals against would have been higher than actual.
 
James19 said:
Worth bearing in mind that the wonderful Celtic have only conceded 6 fewer goals than us in the league (27 to 21).

That could well be the difference between being 9 points behind and being 3 points behind, but it’s not a huge difference when you consider the opinions on our defence.
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I think we do have to say that some horrendous officiating is also propping them up. Look at the Hibs games, 1 away from us earlier in season and wkend there for them. The ref ultimately cost us 2 points and who knows what wkend would have finished if the ref had been fair. Now this isn’t to sound all Paranoid like them but an even playing field and the gap would be a lot closer!

Ultimately to look at our own house first our finishing does have to get better and the defensive errors have to stop.
 
James19 said:
Worth bearing in mind that the wonderful Celtic have only conceded 6 fewer goals than us in the league (27 to 21).

That could well be the difference between being 9 points behind and being 3 points behind, but it’s not a huge difference when you consider the opinions on our defence.
Click to expand...

It's one game that causes that swing as well. Reverse the result and they have conceded more goals than us.

The rate we concede v the rest of the league is vastly similar.
 
TN8 said:
Yes, some still seem determined to peddle this pish. It's disappointing how much some people seem to want Beale to fail.
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I fear for Beale if he was to fail to win any of the 3 upcoming games against the Separate Entity due to the fans reaction.

The guy beside me on Saturday was going absolutely batsh!t mental after losing the 1st goal on Saturday and feel there is a general unease at Ibrox just now too.

His results warrant a lot more patience from our support as they've been brilliant, considering how crap we've been this season.
 
WATP1979 said:
This XG stuff does my nut in, zero interest in “expected”, it’s actual goals that count and all that matters

Under Walter our XG figure would have been non existent in many games that we won, and expected goals against would have been higher than actual.
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Ultimately its the actual goals scored and conceded that count.

However it's a good metric to use to assess how we are performing and identify the areas that need improved.
 
GovanFront4 said:
Such a basic thing to say though. Do you not expect the staff to be looking at why we concede and why we don't score the amount of goals we should? It's not under 10's thats why games aren't finishing 11-10.
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I agree that they should look into it and improve it, however the manager mentions that because the way we play you are going to give up chances. We do need to score one more than them, however, we should be aiming to score 3/4 more than the opposition and if it wasnt for bad finishing from us we would have.
 
Statistically, our problems are our finishing and our goalkeeping.

We have the most shots in the top league this season and the most shots on target but our actual conversion is much lower than the beasts.

Worst of all is that we have lowest shots saved percentage in the entire league.
 
James19 said:
Worth bearing in mind that the wonderful Celtic have only conceded 6 fewer goals than us in the league (27 to 21).

That could well be the difference between being 9 points behind and being 3 points behind, but it’s not a huge difference when you consider the opinions on our defence.
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Makes less of a difference when they’ve scored 5 & 6 against opponents regularly this year, something we’ve failed to do.
 
mathers1 said:
Makes less of a difference when they’ve scored 5 & 6 against opponents regularly this year, something we’ve failed to do.
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That’s really my point.

Defence is not necessary the issue. We both attack so much, spaces at the back or defensive lapses are inevitable.

Scoring goals at the other end is more important right now. Beale appears to be slowly addressing that.
 
I like stats as they help take some of the emotion out of it.

Scottish football isn't that complicated. If we score 3 & 4 goals in a game we will win a high % of matches. We can afford to lose 1 or 2 when we know we can score. Obviously we'd rather not lose any but we have improved and with investment in the 1st 11 we should improve further next season
 
TN8 said:
Christ. And that was only this season.
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Not just with us, his away record in general is just shite. He never won an away European game with Feyenoord either and they played some minnows amongst that.

He lost 7 from 10 for us in Europe but the 2 wins and 1 draw were Dortmund, PSV and Lyon so those three were above expectations.
 
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